Case Overview
The item pool is dominated by classified and covert skins, with reduced representation of lower tiers. The rarity distribution is steep, concentrating value in a small subset of items while maintaining a baseline of more frequent mid-tier outcomes. This creates a high-skew structure with significant differentiation between outcome levels.
Value and Risk Factors
Expected value is largely driven by low-probability premium items that carry substantial weight in the distribution. Variance is high due to the concentration of value in upper tiers and limited stabilizing influence from lower-value items. Risk factors include reduced frequency of mid-range outcomes and exposure to market volatility affecting high-tier Canals skins, leading to wider deviation from average results.