Covert Knife
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Covert Knife

skin.club
Case Price
$62.01
Total EV
$55.81
EV Ratio
0.900×
Skins in case
15
EV Ratio = Total EV / Case Price. A ratio of 0.900× means that statistically, each case opening returns 90.0% of the case cost. Results are random - individual outcomes will vary from statistical estimates.

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Roll Covert Knife against its real drop rates and watch the math play out.

About this case

Where Is This Case Available?

The Covert Knife case is available on skin.club. It contains 15 skins with published drop rate statistics. The Expected Value and drop rate data below reflect current statistical data for this specific case listing on skin.club.

Case Overview

The case structure is heavily skewed toward lower-tier filler items, with a very small probability allocated to top-tier knife outcomes. Mid-tier representation is limited, resulting in a steep probability gradient between common and premium items. The pool is narrow, with clear emphasis on a single high-impact category, positioning the case within a high-variance segment.

Value and Risk Factors

Expected value is driven almost entirely by rare top-tier outcomes, while the majority of results fall into low-value tiers. This creates a highly asymmetric distribution with significant dispersion. Variance is elevated due to the low frequency of premium items. Demand for knife-class skins remains structurally strong, supporting upper-bound valuation, but overall return consistency is low due to probability imbalance.