Case Overview
The Fade Case features a narrower item pool with strong emphasis on upper-tier cosmetics. Lower-tier items remain the most frequent outcomes, while mid-tier representation is reduced. High-tier items dominate the theoretical value contribution despite low probability. The structure reflects a top-weighted distribution, with increased sensitivity to demand fluctuations in premium categories.
Value and Risk Factors
Expected value is heavily dependent on low-probability high-tier outcomes, resulting in elevated variance. Most results occur within lower tiers, producing a consistent gap between average outcomes and theoretical value. The limited presence of mid-tier stabilizers increases dispersion. Demand variability in premium items introduces uncertainty, while lower-tier oversupply reduces baseline retention. Outcome distribution is wider and less predictable.