Case Overview
The Knife Life case features a narrow item pool with strong emphasis on premium-tier cosmetics. Lower-tier items remain the most frequent outcomes, while mid-tier representation is reduced. High-tier items dominate the theoretical value contribution despite low probability. The structure reflects a top-weighted distribution, with value concentrated in rare outcomes and increased sensitivity to premium market demand.
Value and Risk Factors
Expected value is heavily dependent on low-probability high-tier items, resulting in elevated variance. Most results occur within lower tiers, producing a consistent gap between average outcomes and theoretical value. The limited presence of mid-tier stabilizers increases dispersion. Demand variability in premium items introduces uncertainty, while lower-tier oversupply reduces baseline retention. Outcome distribution is wide, reflecting higher unpredictability.