Case Overview
The case uses a tiered pool in which item values are not evenly distributed. A large share of outcomes sits in the lower and middle ranges, while premium skins occupy much smaller probability bands. This structure means the average item value can be influenced strongly by a limited number of expensive entries. Market positioning therefore depends on both pool depth and the quality of the rare tier, including how actively those skins trade and how stable their external valuations remain over time.
Value and Risk Factors
Expected value is calculated by weighting every listed item by its probability and summing the results. That figure should not be interpreted as the most typical result from one case. Statistical variance can be substantial when a small set of rare items accounts for a meaningful share of theoretical value. Relevant factors include the concentration of probability in lower tiers, condition-specific valuation, liquidity, transaction spreads, and demand stability. If premium items weaken in the secondary market, expected return can decline even without any change to the published distribution.