Case Overview
The Leviathan pool includes rifles, pistols, SMGs, sniper rifles, knives and other cosmetic categories, with Factory New, Minimal Wear and additional condition variants represented. Published probability ranges distribute outcomes across many value bands rather than a small set of equivalent items. Higher-value entries occupy comparatively narrow probability intervals, while lower and mid-tier skins account for considerably more of the distribution. This creates a diversified item list but not necessarily a balanced value distribution. Market positioning is therefore determined by the relationship between the probability mass of routine outcomes and the contribution of scarce items to aggregate theoretical value.
Value and Risk Factors
Leviathan's EV can be modeled by multiplying every outcome's reference value by its probability and summing the results. The resulting average should be distinguished from median or typical realized value, particularly when rare outcomes contribute disproportionately to EV. Variance is influenced by the long upper tail, while liquidity varies by weapon, skin, wear level and collector demand. Market spreads and valuation updates can further affect realized return. A robust assessment should examine probability concentration, downside frequency, upper-tail dependence and the stability of demand for the skins that contribute most strongly to expected value.