Case Overview
The item pool consists primarily of lower- and mid-tier skins across several weapon types, with minimal inclusion of high-tier items. The distribution is compressed, resulting in a tighter clustering of outcomes and reduced spread between tiers. Lower-tier entries form a significant portion of the pool, reinforcing the baseline structure.
Value and Risk Factors
Expected value is constrained by the high frequency of lower-tier outcomes and the limited presence of premium items. Variance is relatively low due to the narrow valuation range, though downside concentration remains significant. Demand for commonly traded skins supports liquidity but limits upside dispersion. EV is stable in structure but sensitive to small changes in distribution weighting.