Case Overview
The item pool consists of sniper rifle skins across multiple rarity tiers, including widely traded baseline items and a limited number of premium variants. The structure follows a clear hierarchy, with most outcomes concentrated in lower and mid tiers, while a small subset of high-tier skins defines the upper boundary. The thematic consistency reduces variability in item type but maintains valuation spread.
Value and Risk Factors
Expected value is driven by the probability weighting of high-demand sniper skins, which typically exhibit stable liquidity. However, probability mass remains concentrated in lower-tier outcomes, resulting in moderate to high variance. The gap between common and premium skins contributes to dispersion, making short-term results less predictable. EV remains sensitive to rarity allocation and the frequency of upper-tier outcomes within the distribution.