Case Overview
The item pool incorporates premium, mid-tier, and lower-tier skins with a relatively smooth value gradient. While high-tier items contribute to total expected value, mid-tier outputs form a substantial portion of the distribution. Lower-tier entries are present to maintain structural continuity without overwhelming the pool. This configuration aligns with a moderate-variance classification.
Value and Risk Factors
Expected value is derived from both upper-tier probabilities and the aggregated effect of mid-tier items. Variance is moderated by distribution breadth, reducing dependence on rare outcomes. Risk factors include shifts in demand across a wide range of skins and liquidity dispersion between tiers. Key considerations include distribution symmetry, item pool diversity, and consistency of market demand.